Alberta Liberal leader Kevin Taft made a bold prediction today. In an interview published in the Lloydminster Meridian Booster, Taft stated that the Alberta Tories should start hemorrhaging support as a result of Ralph Klein stepping down:
“With Ralph Klein stepping down it is a new era in Alberta politics, no question,” Taft said. “It leaves a gaping whole in the middle of the Conservative party. They have really become the Ralph Klein Party, and now they don’t have Ralph Klein and they’re in turbulent times.
“I’ve heard political scientists say that in many parts of Alberta that Ralph Klein was worth about 1,000 to 1,500 votes in each constituency, and there’s some truth to that. With him gone, it’s the end of one era, and the beginning of another.”
Let's do the math. If Ralph Klein is worth 1,000 to 1,500 votes in each constituency, that means the Tories should lose somewhere between 83,000 and 124,500 votes in the next election without Ralph Klein as leader. That would represent as much as a 30% drop in support for the Tories.
But what if Preston Manning were the leader? According to a Leger Marketing poll published today in the Calgary Herald, Manning would enjoy the support of 51 % of Albertans, compared to 17% for the Liberals:
Manning's popularity would translate into more electoral success for the Tories compared with Dinning, Oberg or any of the other leadership aspirants, according to the Leger poll. When asked which party they'd vote for with Manning at the Tory helm, 51 per cent of respondents said they'd back the Conservatives, compared to 17 per cent for Kevin Taft's Liberals and seven per cent for Brian Mason's NDP.
That would in fact be an improvement over the last provincial election in 2004, when the Tories garnered the support of 46.8% of the electorate, compared to 29.4% for the party of Taft.
Oh well. Why let the facts get in the way of some shameless self-promotion, right Taft?
