Stephane Dion's NEP II will be the story of 2007

Well, it's prediction time.

In my opinion, the biggest news story of 2007 will be the federal government's implementation of the Kyoto Accord, the first phase of which comes into force next year. It is clear that the Conservative plan is a non-starter, so it will likely be fed into the nearest paper shredder whenever the Conservatives leave office, which I predict will happen as early as the spring of 2007. My crystal ball tells me that they will lose the budget vote at that time, although it is certainly possible that the Bloc Quebecois may support the Conservatives if the Bloc's poll numbers are lower than they would like them to be.

If the Conservatives are defeated in the spring of 2007, I predict that we will see a return to Liberal government, and with that, a return to the regional preference and discrimination policies that have been the hallmark of that party's success since confederation.

If the next government is a Liberal minority, it will be especially scary for Albertans. The government will likely seek support from the NDP and/or Bloc, and will have to strike a fairly extreme position on Kyoto implementation in order to keep these partners satisfied. They will insist on billions in spending, billions in new taxes and penalties -disproportionately paid for by Alberta of course - and preferential treatment for Eastern-based industry. The Liberal government of Stephane Dion will be only too happy to accomodate these requests, since votes in Alberta are relatively scarce for the Liberals, and certainly far less valuable to them than the potential billions they believe they can extract without any expense to the people that matter.

Given these predictions, one of my new year's resolutions is to cover the Kyoto implementation issue from an Albertan's perspective, while paying particular attention to chronicling the greed, lies, fear-mongering, and outright duplicity of the Kyoto proponents.

In furtherance of this resolution, I have begun gathering articles and news clippings on the Kyoto issue. Based on the materials that I have reviewed to date, it would appear the first lines of argument that Dion will attempt will be (i) exaggerate the dangers to the environment of the petroleum industry in relation to other emitters, and (ii) repeat the canard that the petroleum industry receives excessive benefits from the public purse - thereby conditioning the public for the upcoming cash grab. These lines of argument become clear when one focusses on the public statements of Dion since he was elected Liberal leader. For example, the day after his election, he held a press conference wherein he promised to "revisit the tax system" as it pertains to the petroleum industry:

"Certainly it will mean revisiting the tax system, but not to put the money out of Alberta - to help Alberta save their water, to save their development, to avoid acid rain, to reconcile agriculture and (the) oil industry." ...

... "In particular, the advantageous tax treatment oil and gas companies receive should be reviewed," his policy states.

"It is no longer clear that this special tax treatment is warranted given the boom in development, massive profits and rising price of all types of fossil fuels."

Source: Calgary Sun

Click for full screencap

Then, from the December 22, 2006 edition of Business Edge:

Dion said he will review existing breaks for the oilsands if he becomes prime minister, and will only allow them for companies that meet high environmental standards. ...

... Dion said he would not impose a tax on gasoline but would use fiscal measures to encourage companies to adopt green technology.

Alberta's oilpatch receives an estimated $1.4 billion in annual tax breaks through a program designed to encourage new construction projects.

Dion said the Accelerated Capital Cost Program, designed a decade ago to help the then-fledgling industry, is outdated and needs to be revamped.

"We will revisit it completely," Dion said.

"Instead of an economy based on waste, we will have an economy based on recycling, on the best environmental technologies available."

Source: Business Edge

Click for full screencap

So, to summarize:

• Dion is basically confirming the Accelerated Capital Cost Program will be cancelled, which will result in an additional $1.4 billion to the Ottawa treasury (almost entirely from Alberta). None of the billions in direct subsidies and tax breaks to the Ontario auto industry, the Quebec aerospace industry, or the industries of Atlantic Canada warranted attention from Dion at his first press conference. Evidently, such things as cars, and Bombardier executive jets - which are the most polluting mode of transportation in the world - are less of a target in the gun sights of Dion.
• The additional money sent to Ottawa will "not be put out of Alberta", but will be reinvested here to save our water, development, and farmland - and to save us from acid rain. Dion does not state the constitutional basis for these new regulatory intrusions into local developments and Alberta's farms. Is this another example of asymmetrical federalism, wherein the federal government exercises powers in Alberta that it doesn't even purport to possess in Quebec? Time will tell.
• There will be unspecified additional fiscal measures directed towards the oilpatch, but there will be no tax on gasoline. However, I'm sure Dion knows that there are already an array of taxes on gasoline. In fact, gasoline is one of the most heavily taxed commodities in the country. We even pay taxes on the taxes on gasoline, so I assume Dion is saying he will impose no additional consumption taxes on gasoline. But what about regional and industry specific taxes? Does Dion have an economic study that would support such taxes? If so, where can I get it? If not, why has he ruled out a broader consumption tax?

Hopefully, during the course of the next year, I'll be able to find the answers to some of these questions.

On the other hand, I already know what the answer will be to the question of how the Alberta Liberals will respond to all this: they will go along with everything their Ottawa masters propose.

After all, you can't expect Kevin Taft to actually defend the people or businesses who pay his salary, and thereby jeopardize his appointment to the Senate, can you?

Kevin Taft: busted

This didn't take long (click on thumbnail for the full screencap):

I suppose Kevin Taft deserves some small amount of credit for rapidly retracting his false allegation. The fact that he failed to apologize for his unwarranted attack certainly comes as no surprise.

Liberals are arrogant, and will always equivocate and dissemble with words like "misunderstood" - which leaves open the possibility that the problem lay with the wording of the Order - rather than admit the real reason for this mistake was their own incompetent research and analysis.

A false accusation from Kevin Taft?

Alberta Liberal leader Kevin Taft attacked the government on Friday for supposedly passing an Order in Council that would remove the Alberta Health Quality Council from scrutiny under the Access to Information legislation. Here is a screencap of the story (click for the full web page):

The Government of Alberta was quick to respond. They state that the Order in Council Taft was relying on simply removed the Alberta Health Council from one of two categories that it had been listed in.

It remains subject to information requests:

I don't know who is correct here, but the ball is clearly in Kevin Taft's court. Has he made a false accusation, and, if he has, will he show enough class to withdraw it publicly and apologize?

Given that he is a Liberal, I certainly won't be holding my breath waiting.

Liberal math: 3 Quebecers = 8 Albertans

I just read this post over on CalgaryGrit. It would appear that the delegate selection process for the federal Liberal Party is a bit of a fiasco. There are allegations of voting irregularities, and forged signatures on delegate forms.

In other words, it's pretty much par for the course in the natural governing party.

In addition to the scandals, it would appear that even Liberals are beginning to notice the regional favoritism in their party. The rules of the party are such that approximately 3 Quebec members have the same representation as roughly 8 Alberta members in terms of delegate selection. Commenter Jason Bo Green weighs in:

Wow, interesting numbers.

I'm inclined to agree with you, man - it does look like everyone bombed out in Quebec.

And - pardon my English, but just what the fuck is going on with Alberta getting so royally screwed on say/votes yet again?

Honestly, I'm amazed (and grateful) Alberta sticks it through with us ...

Jason, for your information, Albertans are not sticking with you, or the Liberals. According to the numbers CalgaryGrit posted, your party has a grand total of 3,299 voting members in the Province of Alberta. There are individual ridings in this province with more Conservative members than that. I have also heard that the number of members expected to vote in the provincial Progressive Conservative leadership race could go as high as 200,000.

The federal Liberal Party is completely dominated by eastern Canadians, as your leadership race shows. Albertans simply aren't interested in it (other than a couple of opportunists like CalgaryGrit and daveberta).

Ask yourself this: who is the last leader of the Liberal Party of Canada to come from Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, or Manitoba?

Got you stumped? Let's make it easier: who is the last western Canadian candidate to get a single vote at a federal Liberal Party leadership convention?

Think hard now. There must be someone.

New Leger Poll: Bad news for Kevin Taft

A new Leger Poll was released yesterday. The results for the Kevin Taft led Alberta Liberal Party couldn't be more laughable. Here is a summary of the results:

The Kevin Taft Liberals are at a pathetic 12% in the province, with only 10% of the popular vote in Calgary, and 6% in rural Alberta. This is about 17 points lower than the Alberta Liberals scored in the last provincial election.

The Kevin Taft deathwatch has officially begun.

Methodology

This Leger Marketing opinion poll was conducted among 900 respondents throughout Alberta, September 20th and 30th, 2006. The maximum margin of error for a sample of this size is ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for each area, namely Calgary, Edmonton and other areas combined is ± 5.7%, 19 times out of 20. The Margin of error for the sample of self-declared PC Party supporters is ± 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.

Using the latest data from Statistics Canada, final results were weighted according to gender and region to ensure a sample representative of the province of Alberta population.

Source: http://legermarketing.com/documents/pol/061004ENG.pdf

College dropout Gerard Kennedy wants to run Alberta's education system

Anyone familiar with the Liberal Party of Canada is certainly familiar with its obsessive impulse to take over the public policy functions of the provinces in areas of provincial jurisdiction. The most obvious example of this is the Canada Health Act, but the Liberal desire for total domination of the provinces extends far beyond healthcare. They have their beady little eyes set on education as well.

Don't believe me?

Take a look at one Gerard Kennedy, the "new generation" of Liberal. He started off in the Liberal leadership race with great fanfare, but, unfortunately, he has appeared a bit stale as of late, and is rarely mentioned as a frontrunner anymore. He has obviously decided that he needs a new schtick, and what better way to endear himself to fellow Liberals than to promise to do to education what Pierre Trudeau did to healthcare. Young Gerard may be a college dropout, but he ain't no dummy. He knows that nothing titillates a Liberal more than grandiose talk about national standards and new federal roles:

Kennedy calls for national education standards

Elizabeth Thompson
CanWest News Service; Montreal Gazette

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Canada should adopt national standards in areas such as education if it wants to compete in an era of globalization, says Liberal leadership hopeful Gerard Kennedy.

"A federal government can be much more effective if it takes the leadership role and I think that is what has been missing," said Kennedy, who stepped down as Ontario's education minister to seek the leadership of the federal Liberal party.

"We need to declare what our goals are, the provincial governments need to be brought along as partners ... These are the jurisdictions of the provincial governments but they too should meet standards, just like the federal government should. In the absence of that we will be unable to compete in the global economy."

Kennedy says those national education standards should be accompanied by federal cash and the provinces should work together to set them.

''If you look at the equalization premise in the Constitution it is about comparable standards. We don't even know if we have comparable standards. What we have is comparable funding, but what we don't have is the result. And that is going to hold us back.''

While he wants to see Ottawa play a leadership role in developing national standards for education, he says it would be a mistake to have a homogenous curriculum across the country.

Under the Canadian Constitution, education falls largely under provincial jurisdiction and provinces have jealously guarded their right to decide what is taught in their schools and which standards should apply.

However, the way Ottawa and the provinces relate to each other over their respective jurisdictions is just one of the things Canada should approach differently as it moves into the 21st century, says Kennedy.

Ever since he jumped into the crowded leadership race in April, Kennedy has sought to set himself apart as a candidate for a new generation and for a new century.

With less than two weeks to go before the next general Liberal leadership debate this time in Quebec City on Sept. 10 Kennedy is also working hard to show Quebecers that a guy raised in the West and who served in Ontario Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty's cabinet can understand Quebec and deal with its concerns.

Kennedy, who was criticized in the spring by some Liberals for lack of fluency in French, has spent much of the summer in Quebec.

Along the way, he says, he learned a lot about the province.

''I think I got a sense of diversity in Quebec which was really important ... I also got a bit of a sense, that I'm still sort of assimilating, about the whole relationship between Quebec and Canada and Quebec in its own past.''

And when it comes to how to approach Quebec, Kennedy rejects a tough federalist line as well as a more decentralized view of federal-provincial relations.

''I'm in favour of the third way which is basically to come up with a purpose that appeals equally to Quebecers and to the rest of the country.''

Wow! How fortunate. Just when Gerard needed an issue, along comes a crisis in education. Some people have all the luck.

I'm sure the parallel between Gerard's approach to saving us from provincial standards in education, and the Liberal approach to saving us from provincial standards in healthcare, is also a pure coincidence.

Let's review the essential elements of Gerard's approach:

1. manufacture a problem regarding provincial standards (in this case, provincial diversity would appear to be the problem);
2. use the fear factor to hype the problem to the brain dead supporters of the Liberal Party (Kennedy makes the unsupported claim that Canada risks falling behind in the "era of globalization");
3. propose federal government input and control as a solution (without explaining what it would do that the provinces are incapable of doing);
4. offer federal funds to bribe the provinces (the feds can always withdraw them after they have achieved full political control of education - just like they did in healthcare); and
5. exempt Quebec from the scheme (some provinces are more equal than others, and Quebec can be cranky when it comes to federal domination).

The fact that Alberta students are already amongst the highest achievers in the world on standardized tests (and perform far better than all other Canadian provinces) doesn't even warrant a mention. To admit that would be anathema to a Liberal. Provincial governance is something that Albertans must be protected from. Albertans governing themselves in an area such as education is a problem, because Gerard Kennedy says it is, and, by golly, the only way to fix it is reduce the role of Albertans in their own public affairs and increase the role of Ottawa Liberals.

So, there you have it. Canadian imperialism in action. Beautiful in its simplicity, isn't it?

It will be interesting to see if anything appears in the media in the next few days from the Alberta Liberal Party regarding this plan. After all, they keep insisting they are fit to govern the province of Alberta, if only the voters would give them a chance.

Here is Kevin Taft's chance to show some leadership on an important issue.

I'll keep my eyes and ears open Kevin, but, let's face it, since both you and your colleagues in the Alberta Liberal Party essentially agree with this agenda, you aren't going to challenge it.

It's just not in your character.

Source: The Montreal Gazette

Google News: Your search - "Alberta Horizons" - did not match any documents

The pathetic political performance of Kevin Taft's Liberals has continued unabated over the course of the summer. You may recall that the inept Mr. Taft was quoted in this blog entry back on April 17, 2006. At that time he was boasting about how he was going out on a province-wide tour to "promote his party's vision for Alberta." That vision was evidently contained in a policy document entitled "Alberta Horizons".

The summer is now over. How did the Alberta Liberals make out in their latest attempt at making themselves relevant to Albertans? Well, when one searches Google News, the phrase "Alberta Horizons" does not even appear anywhere in the media.

Not good.

Furthermore, according to this story in the Calgary Herald, the Taft Liberals would do even worse against a Tory party lead by Jim Dinning or Lyle Oberg (15% support) than they would against Ralph Klein (measured at 18% support in March):

When respondents were asked which political party they would most likely vote for, 46 per cent said they would back a Dinning Conservative party, compared with 15 per cent for Kevin Taft's Liberals and eight per cent for Brian Mason's NDP.

The Green party and Paul Hinman's Alberta Alliance rounded out the mainstream parties with five per cent each.

Oberg, meanwhile, would nab 42 per cent of public support as Tory leader, with the remaining parties receiving backing similar to that if Dinning were party chief.

The Leger poll was conducted throughout Alberta, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 ...

Kevin Taft has been railing against the Progressive Conservatives since at least 1997, when he published his razor-thin book "Shredding the Public Interest". The Alberta Liberals are now polling at about half the level of support they received less than 2 years ago in the Alberta provincial election.

Grab a brain Alberta Liberals.

How long are you going to let this ineffective demagogue cling to power? Isn't it time for Kevin Taft to get "Chretiened"?

Support for Liberals plummets in Quebec

A CROP poll of 1,002 Quebecers published today shows that support for the "natural governing party" has fallen to a measly 15% in Quebec:

The poll contained more bad news for the Liberals, who once dominated the province but were brought down last November by a corruption scandal which centered on Quebec. The party sank to 15 percent support from 20 percent on January 23.

This means the federal Liberals are now polling less support in Quebec than the hapless Kevin Taft Liberals are polling in Alberta (whose support level was last measured at about 18%).

Have the federalists in Quebec finally decided to abandon the centralizing federalism of the Liberals?

Source: Reuters

Kevin Taft and Ray Martin slam the Alberta Securities Commission

Kevin Taft and Ray Martin provided Albertans with another example of their incompetence today. In an Edmonton Sun story about a private criminal prosecution against the Alberta Securities Commission, both Taft and Martin offer up premature conclusions of wrongdoing on the part of the ASC. Ray Martin also argued that these unproven allegations somehow justify replacing the Alberta-based securities commission with "a national securities regulator":

Finance Minister Shirley McClellan, said she can't comment on a case before the court, but noted the ASC hasn't yet been served with the charge.

But NDP MLA Ray Martin says it's yet another allegation against a regulatory body that has been accused of lax enforcement and favouritism.

"I have said before I thought the whole group of them should be fired and we should bring in a national securities regulator," he said.

Liberal leader Kevin Taft said the case fuels concerns about securities commission enforcement.

"The ASC can't be seen to be playing favourites or mollycoddling anybody or they will lose credibility."

Competent politicians avoid commenting on cases before the courts (as Shirley McClellan did here), given that negative publicity about a criminal prosecution can adversely affect the fairness of any future trial. Obviously, Kevin Taft and Ray Martin have little respect for this tradition, or for the rights of the persons accused.

It bears pointing out that this case involves a private prosecution. That means the Crown attorney and police have not been involved in preparing the charges. According to the story, the allegations of criminal wrongdoing are being made by two investors named Barb Trosin and Jason Cowan. They apparently lost money in a transaction, and are now seeking to proceed in criminal, rather than civil court.

Good luck with that.

As University of Alberta law professor Sanjeev Anand says, there is only a slim chance that these allegations will ever be proven:

University of Alberta law professor Sanjeev Anand says that laying the private charge may focus the Crown's attention on the case, but there's only a slim chance it will go to trial.

"Ninety-nine times out of 100, they will withdraw the charge and that will be the end of the matter."

So, here we have the leader of the opposition and another prominent opposition politician essentially accepting the merits of unproven criminal allegations against persons at the ASC when those allegations only have the slimmest of chances of ever going to trial, never mind being proven in court.

Albertans are fair-minded people who expect criminal allegations to be proven in a court of law, not used as a political football by desperate politicians in an attempt to bolster their own standing in the eyes of the public. Given this, is it any wonder Albertans won't trust buffoons like Kevin Taft and Ray Martin with the levers of power?

Kevin Taft has ideas, not answers

Alberta Liberal leader Kevin Taft has begun a "province-wide tour to promote his party’s vision for Alberta". According to Taft, the tour is about "ideas rather than answers":

Kevin Taft, Alberta’s official opposition leader was in Hinton on April 10 to kick off a province-wide tour to promote his party’s vision for Alberta.

“We want to start political debate,” he said, adding the timing is right after Ralph Klein announced he would step down as premier.

“There has been a big shift in the political landscape in the last three weeks,” he explained.

The ideas are outlined in a document called Alberta Horizons and it is broken down into four areas.

“Right now they are ideas rather than answers,” Taft said.

Alberta Horizons outlines the party’s plan for democratic reform and governance, economic sustainability, environment protection and enhancement, and social development.

For democratic reform the Liberals would like to see fixed election dates, the implementation of donation limits for politicians and all-party committees to make important decisions in the legislature.

As for economic stability, the Liberals would never have handed out prosperity cheques.

“That’s a $400 chunk out of a future library or road,” Taft said.

The Liberal Party’s plan for a large surplus includes more money for post secondary education, infrastructure and the Heritage Fund.

Environmental protection and enhancement rank high as a priority for the Liberals. The document starts off by saying that if a program was started now, in a decade 10 to 20 per cent of Albertans could live in homes that generate their own heat and power. Taft said a balance needs to be found between protecting our environment and ensuring Alberta’s economy remains healthy.

“Industry needs to work hard to maintain its social contract,” he said.

10 to 20 percent of Albertans living in magic homes that generate their own heat and power? That's great! How would that work, Kevin?

Oh, I forgot, Alberta Horizons is about ideas, not answers.

Source: Hinton Parklander

Confidential tips by email

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Some wishful thinking from Kevin Taft

Alberta Liberal leader Kevin Taft made a bold prediction today. In an interview published in the Lloydminster Meridian Booster, Taft stated that the Alberta Tories should start hemorrhaging support as a result of Ralph Klein stepping down:

“With Ralph Klein stepping down it is a new era in Alberta politics, no question,” Taft said. “It leaves a gaping whole in the middle of the Conservative party. They have really become the Ralph Klein Party, and now they don’t have Ralph Klein and they’re in turbulent times.

“I’ve heard political scientists say that in many parts of Alberta that Ralph Klein was worth about 1,000 to 1,500 votes in each constituency, and there’s some truth to that. With him gone, it’s the end of one era, and the beginning of another.”

Let's do the math. If Ralph Klein is worth 1,000 to 1,500 votes in each constituency, that means the Tories should lose somewhere between 83,000 and 124,500 votes in the next election without Ralph Klein as leader. That would represent as much as a 30% drop in support for the Tories.

But what if Preston Manning were the leader? According to a Leger Marketing poll published today in the Calgary Herald, Manning would enjoy the support of 51 % of Albertans, compared to 17% for the Liberals:

Manning's popularity would translate into more electoral success for the Tories compared with Dinning, Oberg or any of the other leadership aspirants, according to the Leger poll. When asked which party they'd vote for with Manning at the Tory helm, 51 per cent of respondents said they'd back the Conservatives, compared to 17 per cent for Kevin Taft's Liberals and seven per cent for Brian Mason's NDP.

That would in fact be an improvement over the last provincial election in 2004, when the Tories garnered the support of 46.8% of the electorate, compared to 29.4% for the party of Taft.

Oh well. Why let the facts get in the way of some shameless self-promotion, right Taft?

The politics of sycophancy and subordination

I am the postulator of a controversial political theory: the political and business elites of Ontario and Quebec represent a clear and present danger to Alberta and Albertans. Their view of Alberta is paternalistic, and offensive. They want two things from us: our conformity, and our oil.

Amongst the many weapons they have at their disposal is the Alberta Liberal Party. The Alberta Liberals are first and foremost quislings, whose loyalties lie not with the people they seek to represent, but to the elites ensconced in the centre of the Canadian federation. As such, their attempts to gain control of the provincial government are something that we as Albertans must fight against.

This blog is dedicated to recording Alberta's conflicts with the federation, and documenting Canada's ongoing efforts to dominate the politics, economy, media, and culture of Albertans. I hope to make a convincing case against the Alberta Liberal Party, and what I refer to as the politics of sycophancy and subordination.

Thanks for visiting, and I hope you drop by again.